Al-Raed 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al Baten at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021 at 16:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Pro League appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 2W 3D 4L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.22 PPG versus Al Baten's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Baten in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 44% versus Al Baten 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 44% | Al Baten 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.09 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.846 / defence 1.100 | Al Baten attack 0.740 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.161. Data: 9 Al-Raed games / 9 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 38% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Al Baten 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 25% | Al Baten 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 38% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Raed 1.09 / Al Baten 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.846 / def 1.100 | Al Baten attack 0.740 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al Baten xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:05 on Friday 29 October 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 38% chance of winning, Al Baten a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Baten in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.10
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.04
0.94
Al Baten xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.94 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.22 PPG, Al Baten on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Baten's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.75 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Baten in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2023, when Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Baten?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 25%, Al Baten 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Raed and 50% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Baten in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Baten 1-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.09 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Baten landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Al Baten attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 38% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 30%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 44%, Al Baten 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.22 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.