Al-Raed 3-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Abha at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 3W 1D 6L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Abha have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Abha are 1.10 PPG clear of Al-Raed in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 44% versus Abha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 51% | Abha 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.43 xG and Abha 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.990 / defence 1.432 | Abha attack 1.034 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.181. Data: 45 Al-Raed games / 45 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 32% | Draw 23% | Abha 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Abha 2.22. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Abha 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 32% | Draw 23% | Abha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 1.43 / Abha 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.990 / def 1.432 | Abha attack 1.034 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Abha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Abha xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Abha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Abha kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Al-Raed 3 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Abha part of?
Al-Raed vs Abha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 32% chance of winning, Abha a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Abha 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Abha (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.99) and Abha's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (1.03x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
32%
3.16
23%
4.31
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.18
1.75
Abha xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.75 for Abha, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 7D 23L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (16W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.27 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Raed's home form reads 8W 3D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (5W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.04 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 15W 7D 23L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Abha have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Abha away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.23 PPG; Abha away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Abha have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 36%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Raed) and 50% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 32% of games; Abha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Abha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Abha 3-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.43 xG and Abha 1.75 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.99 / defence 1.43 against Abha attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 32% | Draw 23% | Abha 45%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 51%, Abha 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.16 PPG, Abha 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.