Al Orubah 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Orubah at 43%, yet in-form Al-Fateh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Orubah and Al-Fateh meet at Al-Jouf University Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 September 2024 at 16:55 UTC.
Form
Al Orubah (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Orubah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 0.77 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al-Fateh in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Al Orubah — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 67% versus Al-Fateh 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Orubah 67% | Al-Fateh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.59 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 0.899 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.331. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Al Orubah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Al Orubah games / 37 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Orubah as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fateh (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Orubah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 67% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Sep 2024, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Orubah 1.59 / Al-Fateh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 0.899 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Orubah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:55 on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh?
Al Orubah 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Orubah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Fateh in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.90x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Orubah Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.12
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.97
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.38 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Orubah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Attack vs Defence
Al Orubah are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al Orubah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Orubah
0
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Fateh?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2025, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Orubah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 67%, Al-Fateh 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Orubah and 67% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%; Al Orubah have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Orubah's matches and 67% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Orubah edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.59 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33%, with Al Orubah to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 67%, Al-Fateh 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Al Orubah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Orubah conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.