Al-Nassr 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Al-Nassr welcome Damac to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at Mrsool Park than their overall form suggests.
Damac — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 0 for Damac and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Damac trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 56% versus Damac 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 62% | Damac 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.19 xG and Damac 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.139 / defence 0.918 | Damac attack 0.968 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.104. Data: 32 Al-Nassr games / 32 Damac games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Damac 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Nassr 1.19 / Damac 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.139 / def 0.918 | Damac attack 0.968 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Damac xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Damac kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Damac part of?
Al-Nassr vs Damac is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Nassr and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 0 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.14) and Damac's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.43
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.17
0.98
Damac xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.98 for Damac, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 32 games, going 20W 4D 8L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 11W 2D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 20W 4D 8L in their last 32 games (2.00 PPG), while Damac have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Damac away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.19 PPG; Damac away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Damac in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Damac specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 10, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Nassr and 56% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Nassr's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Nassr's matches and 56% of Damac's.
Do Al-Nassr and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 2-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.19 xG and Damac 0.98 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 62%, Damac 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.