Al-Nassr 4-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al Taee travel to Mrsool Park to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 14:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mrsool Park, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 1D 2L this season (8 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al Taee in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 56% versus Al Taee 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 56% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.75 xG and Al Taee 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.249 / defence 1.119 | Al Taee attack 0.591 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.190. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Nassr games / 18 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taee 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 62% | Al Taee 11% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Nassr 1.75 / Al Taee 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.249 / def 1.119 | Al Taee attack 0.591 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al Taee xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:20 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Al-Nassr 4 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 59% chance of winning, Al Taee a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.25) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.90
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.53
0.79
Al Taee xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
37.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.79 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 2D 5L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (6W 1D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.89 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 11W 2D 5L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taee in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taee?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Al Taee 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Nassr) and 38% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 12% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Nassr's matches and 38% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taee 4-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.75 xG and Al Taee 0.79 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 1.12 against Al Taee attack 0.59 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 15%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 56%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.