Al-Nassr 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Mrsool Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mrsool Park this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 3W 5D 0L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 53% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.67 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.333 / defence 1.142 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.125 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.187. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Al-Nassr games / 19 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Nassr 1.67 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.333 / def 1.142 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.125 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 March 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 0 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 41% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.01
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.19
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.52 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 12W 2D 5L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 10W 7D 2L from 19 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.00 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 5D 0L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 12W 2D 5L in their last 19 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Nassr and 50% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Nassr's games and 88% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Nassr's matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Nassr 0-4 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.67 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.00 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.