Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mrsool Park plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022 at 17:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Mrsool Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 56% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.92 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.271 / defence 1.214 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.821 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.302. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al-Nassr games / 27 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.85. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Nassr 1.92 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.271 / def 1.214 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.821 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:20 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 52% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.82x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.50
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.22
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 17W 3D 7L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 6W 12D 9L from 27 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (9W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 5D 6L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 17W 3D 7L in their last 27 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 12D 9L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.15 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Al-Nassr) and 38% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Nassr's games and 54% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Nassr's matches and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah finished level at 1-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.92 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.