Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.30 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 25% versus Al-Fayha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Fayha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.724 / defence 1.093 | Al-Fayha attack 0.803 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.106. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 38 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fayha 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 / Al-Fayha 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.724 / def 1.093 | Al-Fayha attack 0.803 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.80x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.35
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.10
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.97 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 6L across 8 games — 0.25 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.25 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Al Khaleej Saihat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 0W 2D 6L in their last 8 (0.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Fayha tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 25%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 0.97 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Al-Fayha attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 31%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Fayha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.50 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.