Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Khaleej Saihat register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ahli Jeddah, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 61% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.745 / defence 1.045 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.745 / def 1.045 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.29
34%
2.94
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.32 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 10W 12D 19L from 41 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 6L across 41 games — 2.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 3D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.12 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 12D 19L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 43% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.