Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al Wehda Club travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.40 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 40% versus Al Wehda Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al Wehda Club 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.93 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.164 / defence 1.169 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.759 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.424. Data: 50 Al-Ittihad FC games / 50 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wehda Club 4.17. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Wehda Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.93 / Al Wehda Club 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.164 / def 1.169 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.759 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al Wehda Club xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.16) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.10
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.26
Al Wehda Club xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.26 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 32W 10D 8L from 50 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 24L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 17W 2D 5L from 24 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 6W 3D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.16 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 32W 10D 8L in their last 50 games (2.12 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2024, when Al-Ittihad FC won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 38%, Al Wehda Club 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 42% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 42% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 42% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Wehda Club 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Wehda Club 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.93 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.26 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.17 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 24%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al Wehda Club 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.