Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 2D 1L across 8 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.12 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
Al Shabab have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.38. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 0.62 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.12 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 62% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 xG and Al Shabab 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / defence 0.928 | Al Shabab attack 0.976 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.163. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Al-Ittihad FC games / 8 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 4.76. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Shabab 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 / Al Shabab 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / def 0.928 | Al Shabab attack 0.976 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Shabab xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 50% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.35) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.98x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.44
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.05
Al Shabab xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.05 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 2D 1L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Shabab have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 xG and Al Shabab 1.05 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.93 against Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 21%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.