Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 0W, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.210 / defence 0.906 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.220 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.242. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Al-Ittihad FC games / 26 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.210 / def 0.906 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.220 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.22x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.89
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.37
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.37 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 19W 4D 3L from 26 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 3L across 26 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.35 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 2.12 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 11W 1D 1L from 13 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 7W 5D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 19W 4D 3L in their last 26 games (2.35 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 16W 7D 3L in their last 26 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.62 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 31%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 46% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 46% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.35 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.