Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.40 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al-Ettifaq in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 3–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 48% versus Al-Ettifaq 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.059 / defence 0.927 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.028 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.283. Data: 31 Al-Ittihad FC games / 31 Al-Ettifaq games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 / Al-Ettifaq 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.059 / def 0.927 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.028 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.03x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.60
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.22
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.22 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 21W 5D 5L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 8W 10D 13L from 31 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.32 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 5D 5L in their last 31 games (2.19 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 33%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 0-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.16 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.22 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.