Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 10 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taee have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Al Taee — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al Taee 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Al Taee 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG and Al Taee 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.171 / defence 0.867 | Al Taee attack 0.994 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.308. Data: 52 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 52 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taee 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Taee 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 / Al Taee 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.171 / def 0.867 | Al Taee attack 0.994 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Taee xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 55% chance of winning, Al Taee a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.17) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.99x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.01
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.13
Al Taee xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
36.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.13 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 33W 13D 6L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 19W 7D 26L from 52 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.23 PPG from 26 outings (18W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 7W 3D 16L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 13D 6L in their last 52 games (2.15 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 19W 7D 26L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Taee in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 11 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al Taee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al Taee 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 50% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al Taee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 38% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 50% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG and Al Taee 1.13 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Al Taee attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 20%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al Taee 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.