Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 10 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Shabab (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2022, ended 5–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% versus Al Shabab 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Shabab 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.34 xG and Al Shabab 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.275 / defence 0.952 | Al Shabab attack 1.357 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.020. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Shabab have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 36 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.34 / Al Shabab 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.275 / def 0.952 | Al Shabab attack 1.357 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Shabab xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.36x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.84
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.32
Al Shabab xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.32 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 36 games, going 24W 8D 4L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 2.03 PPG from 36 outings (21W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.22 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 2.03 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 13W 2D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.78 points per game from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.86 scored and 1.03 conceded. Al Shabab's attacking output running into Al-Hilal Saudi FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Al Shabab in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 24W 8D 4L in their last 36 games (2.22 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 21W 10D 5L in their last 36 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.28 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5-0 on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, Al Shabab have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Shabab 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, Al Shabab 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 61% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 56% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 61% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.34 xG and Al Shabab 1.32 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.95 against Al Shabab attack 1.36 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 36%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 PPG, Al Shabab 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.