Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Shabab at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 17 February 2022 at 16:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Shabab (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Shabab arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65% and Al Shabab 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% | Al Shabab 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 xG and Al Shabab 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.266 | Al Shabab attack 1.143 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.204. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 20 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 29% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 2.22. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% | Al Shabab 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Feb 2022, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 29% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 / Al Shabab 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.030 / def 1.266 | Al Shabab attack 1.143 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Al Shabab xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 17 February 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 29% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.14x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 17/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.86
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.74
Al Shabab xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
5%
19.52
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.74 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 7D 2L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (11W 6D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 2.14 points per game from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 2.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 7D 2L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 11W 6D 0L in their last 17 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Al Shabab away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5-0 on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, Al Shabab have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Shabab 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%, Al Shabab 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 57% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 43%; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 57% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 57% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Shabab 5-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 xG and Al Shabab 1.74 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 29% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 45%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al Shabab 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.82. Form was overturned, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.