Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021 at 13:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 1.50 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 29% rate and Al-Fateh's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (12 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (12 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al-Fateh 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% | Al-Fateh 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 xG and Al-Fateh 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.855 / defence 1.074 | Al-Fateh attack 0.663 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.026. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 12 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Fateh 4.35. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 29% | Al-Fateh 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 / Al-Fateh 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.855 / def 1.074 | Al-Fateh attack 0.663 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Al-Fateh xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 13:50 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
45%
2.24
33%
3.06
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
1.88
0.73
Al-Fateh xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.73 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 5W 6D 1L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 29% BTTS, Al-Fateh 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 29% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 43% of games; Al-Fateh in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 29% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 29% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 xG and Al-Fateh 0.73 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Al-Fateh attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% | Draw 33% | Al-Fateh 23%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, Al-Fateh 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (12 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (12 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.