Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Al-Ettifaq 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.40 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.082 / defence 0.972 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.640 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.342. Data: 48 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 50 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 4.55. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.40 / Al-Ettifaq 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.082 / def 0.972 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.640 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.64x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 48/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
50%
2.02
29%
3.49
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.23
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.83 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 30W 13D 5L from 48 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 21L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 16W 4D 4L from 24 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.10 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 30W 13D 5L in their last 48 games (2.15 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 42% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 42% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.40 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.64 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Ettifaq 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.