Al-Hazm 3-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 August 2021 at 18:55 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al Taawon 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Taawon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.340. Data: 0 Al-Hazm games / 0 Al Taawon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 38% | Al Taawon 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.04 | Draw 2.63 | Al Taawon 7.14. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 14% | BTTS probability 18% | Total xG 1.28. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 86% probability — total xG of 1.28 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 82% — Al Taawon's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 18%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 14% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 18:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 38% | Al Taawon 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 14% | BTTS 18% | xG Al-Hazm 0.93 / Al Taawon 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Taawon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.340 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Al Taawon xG
18%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:55 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hazm 3 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 49% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 14% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 18% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 14%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 28.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 66% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
49%
2.04
38%
2.66
14%
7.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
27.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
1.28
0.35
Al Taawon xG
2.04
49%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
7.40
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
37%
Over 1.5
2.70
63%
Under 1.5
1.59
14%
Over 2.5
7.14
86%
Under 2.5
1.16
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
18%
BTTS Yes
5.59
82%
BTTS No
1.22
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27.7 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.35 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Taawon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Hazm and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm and Al Taawon finished level at 3-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al Taawon 0.35 xG, a combined 1.28. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon outscored their 0.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Taawon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 38% | Al Taawon 14%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 14%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 37% and landed. Over 3.5 was 4% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 18% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.