Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Al-Hazm, 1.50 for Al Riyadh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Hazm 2W, Al Riyadh 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al Riyadh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al Riyadh 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.76 xG and Al Riyadh 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.872 / defence 0.850 | Al Riyadh attack 0.927 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 51% | Draw 30% | Al Riyadh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Al Riyadh 5.26. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 51% | Draw 30% | Al Riyadh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hazm 1.76 / Al Riyadh 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.872 / def 0.850 | Al Riyadh attack 0.927 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Riyadh xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 51% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hazm 2W | Draws 2 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.93x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.36
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.82
1.05
Al Riyadh xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
3%
30.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.05 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 21L across 41 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.93 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 9W 3D 8L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.05 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al Riyadh 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al-Hazm and 70% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Hazm's matches and 70% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.