Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Raed meet at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 14:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 3L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Raed are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 29% versus Al-Raed 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 29% | Al-Raed 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.674 / defence 1.236 | Al-Raed attack 1.008 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.155. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Al-Hazm games / 17 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Raed 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 38% | Al-Raed 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hazm 1.07 / Al-Raed 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.674 / def 1.236 | Al-Raed attack 1.008 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Raed xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed kicked off at 14:20 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hazm 2 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 27% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.67x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.01x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
27%
3.68
28%
3.52
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.51
1.44
Al-Raed xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.44 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hazm come into this having played 17 games, going 2W 5D 10L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hazm's home form reads 1W 4D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 games (0.65 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.88 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Raed?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Raed have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 38%, Al-Raed 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Hazm) and 75% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Raed in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 62% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Al-Hazm's matches and 75% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Raed 2-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against Al-Raed attack 1.01 / defence 1.45, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 44%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 29%, Al-Raed 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.