Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.78 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.871 / defence 0.849 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.798 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.798 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 11% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 9.09 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 11% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Hazm 0.78 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.871 / def 0.849 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.798 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 64% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
9.45
25%
3.95
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.82
2.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.45
11%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
72.91
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.04 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 1L across 41 games — 2.49 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 9W 3D 8L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 16W 4D 0L across 20 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.63 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 31W 9D 1L in their last 41 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Hazm) and 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Hazm's matches and 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.