Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.20 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 3 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.11 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.873 / defence 0.852 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.110 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 35% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 35% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hazm 1.11 / Al-Ettifaq 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.873 / def 0.852 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.110 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 May 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.85
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.38
1.26
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.26 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 11D 17L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 17W 10D 14L from 41 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.51 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Hazm) and 55% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Hazm's matches and 55% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.