Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Al-Ahli Jeddah hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.41 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / defence 0.848 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 1.41 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / def 0.848 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 6W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.94x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.94
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.48
1.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.07 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 6L across 41 games — 2.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 9W 3D 8L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 2D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.12 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Hazm) and 45% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 45% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.