Al-Hazm 2-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ar-Rass Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: D D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Abha are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 50% and Abha 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 50% | Abha 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 2.58 xG and Abha 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.129 / defence 1.430 | Abha attack 0.843 / defence 1.706. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.154. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.706 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al-Hazm games / 4 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Abha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hazm (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Abha (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Abha 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Hazm 2.58 / Abha 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 1.129 / def 1.430 | Abha attack 0.843 / def 1.706 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Abha xG
71%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Abha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Abha kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Al-Hazm 2 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Abha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Abha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 61% chance of winning, Abha a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Hazm and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-D-L-L. Abha (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 1.13x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 2.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.84x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.58
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.97
1.39
Abha xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
8%
13.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
1%
77.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.39 for Abha, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Abha are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Abha have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Abha?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Al-Hazm, 100% for Abha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Hazm and 75% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Hazm's matches and 75% of Abha's.
Do Al-Hazm and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Abha 2-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 2.58 xG and Abha 1.39 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Abha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 1.13 / defence 1.43 against Abha attack 0.84 / defence 1.71, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 17%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 50%, Abha 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Abha arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Abha managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.