Al-Fayha 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Thursday 25 August 2022 at 17:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Damac's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Damac are 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Damac 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 7% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 33% versus Damac 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 17% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.13 xG and Damac 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.805 / defence 0.834 | Damac attack 0.947 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.241. Data: 30 Al-Fayha games / 30 Damac games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 30% | Damac 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Damac 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 10% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Aug 2022, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 30% | Damac 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Fayha 1.13 / Damac 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.805 / def 0.834 | Damac attack 0.947 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Damac xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Damac kicked off at 17:05 on Thursday 25 August 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Damac part of?
Al-Fayha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 39% chance of winning, Damac a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Fayha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.81) and Damac's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.95x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.36
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.11
0.98
Damac xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.98 for Damac, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. Damac haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.47 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 5D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
Damac
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Damac have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Damac away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.73 PPG; Damac away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Damac in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 13% (Al-Fayha) and 53% (Damac) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 7% for Al-Fayha and 60% for Damac.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 40% of games; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 13% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 53% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 7% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 60% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.13 xG and Damac 0.98 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 30% | Damac 31%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 17%, Damac 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Damac 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.