Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Fayha, 0.70 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Shabab in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Shabab 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.37 xG and Al Shabab 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.081 / defence 1.162 | Al Shabab attack 0.808 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Al-Fayha games / 41 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Al Shabab 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Fayha 1.37 / Al Shabab 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.081 / def 1.162 | Al Shabab attack 0.808 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 36% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 7W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.79
33%
2.99
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
Al Shabab xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.26 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 11D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 0.95 PPG from 41 outings (8W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.95 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 7D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.22 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
7
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Shabab have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 55%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 30% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 30% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.