Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Raed travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.20 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 4–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Raed trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 40% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 32% | Al-Raed 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.48 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / defence 0.947 | Al-Raed attack 0.959 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.238. Data: 57 Al-Fayha games / 57 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 3.45. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Raed 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fayha 1.48 / Al-Raed 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / def 0.947 | Al-Raed attack 0.959 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Raed xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 45% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.86
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.60
1.12
Al-Raed xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.12 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 15W 19D 23L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 19W 11D 27L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 7W 7D 14L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.28 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 19D 23L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 19W 11D 27L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 25%, Al-Raed 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Fayha) and 71% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 39% of games; Al-Raed in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 54% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 71% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Al-Fayha and Al-Raed drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.48 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 29%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 32%, Al-Raed 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.