Al-Fayha 0-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021, 13:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 0L across 5 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.20 PPG, Abha 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Abha trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 46% versus Abha 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 23% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.40 xG and Abha 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.911 / defence 0.890 | Abha attack 0.634 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.061. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al-Fayha games / 13 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 29% | Abha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Abha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Abha's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Abha 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 29% | Abha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Fayha 1.40 / Abha 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.911 / def 0.890 | Abha attack 0.634 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Abha xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Abha kicked off at 13:55 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Abha part of?
Al-Fayha vs Abha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 56% chance of winning, Abha a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Fayha and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.46
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.00
0.60
Abha xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
4%
26.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.60 for Abha, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 5W 4D 4L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.46 PPG, Abha on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Abha have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Abha have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Abha away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.60 PPG; Abha away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Abha in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Abha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 20% BTTS, Abha 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 20% for Abha.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Abha in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 20% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 20% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Abha finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.40 xG and Abha 0.60 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Abha attack 0.63 / defence 1.39, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 29% | Abha 15%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 23%, Abha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Abha's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.46 PPG, Abha 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.