Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Damac travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Damac's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG, Damac 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Damac in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 45% versus Damac 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 55% | Damac 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.99 xG and Damac 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / defence 1.319 | Damac attack 0.816 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al-Fateh games / 58 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Damac 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Damac 3.85. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 60% | Damac 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Damac 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fateh 1.99 / Damac 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / def 1.319 | Damac attack 0.816 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Damac xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 52% chance of winning, Damac a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Damac (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.60
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.35
1.36
Damac xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.36 for Damac, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 58 games, going 22W 11D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (21W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.33 PPG, Damac on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 11W 5D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.19 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 22W 11D 25L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Damac have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.31 PPG; Damac away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Damac in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 45%, Damac 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Fateh) and 59% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Damac in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 52% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Fateh's matches and 59% of Damac's.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Damac in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.99 xG and Damac 1.36 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.07 / defence 1.32 against Damac attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Damac 26%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 55%, Damac 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.33 PPG, Damac 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.