Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al Taee at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Fateh are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 42% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 42% | Al Taee 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.26 xG and Al Taee 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.420 / defence 1.384 | Al Taee attack 0.644 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.244. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Al-Fateh games / 26 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 63% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Al Taee 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 50% | Al Taee 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 63% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 2.26 / Al Taee 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.420 / def 1.384 | Al Taee attack 0.644 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Taee xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 63% chance of winning, Al Taee a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
63%
1.58
19%
5.19
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.37
1.11
Al Taee xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
10%
9.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
54.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.11 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 8D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.23 PPG, Al Taee on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fateh's home form reads 5W 3D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.04 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Taee in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Taee go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
6
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Taee have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fateh 46% BTTS, Al Taee 23%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Fateh) and 38% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al Taee in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 23% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 38% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.26 xG and Al Taee 1.11 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Taee outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.42 / defence 1.38 against Al Taee attack 0.64 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 63% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 18%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Al Taee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 42%, Al Taee 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.23 PPG, Al Taee 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.