Al-Fateh 2-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al-Raed meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Al-Raed (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al-Raed 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Raed winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 36% versus Al-Raed 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 36% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.84 xG and Al-Raed 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.123 / defence 1.311 | Al-Raed attack 0.886 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.102. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Al-Fateh games / 15 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 3.85. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 33% | Al-Raed 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Fateh 1.84 / Al-Raed 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.123 / def 1.311 | Al-Raed attack 0.886 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Raed xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fateh 2 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 50% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.89x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.23
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.12
1.28
Al-Raed xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.28 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.29 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 0-3 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 5, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 33%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Fateh) and 67% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Raed in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 50% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 67% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Raed defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Fateh 2-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.84 xG and Al-Raed 1.28 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.12 / defence 1.31 against Al-Raed attack 0.89 / defence 1.45, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 26%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 36%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.14 PPG, Al-Raed 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.