Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 16:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 41% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.92 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.033 / defence 1.205 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.258 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.247. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Al-Fateh games / 32 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 0.92 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.033 / def 1.205 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.258 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:35 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 18% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
18%
5.60
22%
4.54
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.81
1.89
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.60
18%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
3%
37.16
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.89 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 8D 14L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.28 PPG from 32 outings (22W 7D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.19 points per game from 16 outings (10W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.09 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 7D 3L in their last 32 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 44%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Fateh's matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.92 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.