Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Al-Fateh take on Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 3D 4L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hazm are 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Hazm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 44% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.810 / defence 0.887 | Al-Hazm attack 0.906 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Al-Fateh games / 41 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 36% | Al-Hazm 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Hazm 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hazm 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 36% | Al-Hazm 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Al-Hazm 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.810 / def 0.887 | Al-Hazm attack 0.906 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.81) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.91x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
36%
2.78
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.07 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 9W 13D 19L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 11D 17L from 41 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.22 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 60%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 60% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fateh's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.