Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Baten to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Baten and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 5–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Baten trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 44% versus Al Baten 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 52% | Al Baten 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.25 xG and Al Baten 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.160 / defence 0.950 | Al Baten attack 0.812 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.186. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Al-Fateh games / 46 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 68% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Al Baten 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 30% | Al Baten 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 68% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fateh 2.25 / Al Baten 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.160 / def 0.950 | Al Baten attack 0.812 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al Baten xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Baten kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 68% chance of winning, Al Baten a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Baten in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Al Baten (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.16) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.39
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.17
0.92
Al Baten xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
1%
68.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.92 for Al Baten, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 9D 20L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten's form line: 8W 12D 26L from 46 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 6D 15L from 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.91 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 12D 26L in their last 46 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Baten in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 39%, Al Baten 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Fateh) and 48% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Baten in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 39% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 48% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Baten 2-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.25 xG and Al Baten 0.92 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Baten landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Al Baten attack 0.81 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 68% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 14%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 52%, Al Baten 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Baten's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.