Al-Fateh 2-4 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Adalah to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Adalah have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG, Al-Adalah 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al-Adalah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Adalah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Al-Adalah trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 46% versus Al-Adalah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Al-Adalah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.90 xG and Al-Adalah 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.038 / defence 1.156 | Al-Adalah attack 0.821 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.196. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Al-Fateh games / 26 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Adalah 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Adalah 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Adalah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Adalah 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fateh 1.90 / Al-Adalah 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.038 / def 1.156 | Al-Adalah attack 0.821 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Adalah xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Fateh 2 - 4 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 55% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.38
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.04
1.14
Al-Adalah xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
3%
30.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.14 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 12W 3D 11L from 26 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 15L across 26 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fateh by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 6W 2D 5L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Adalah's away record stands at 1W 4D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.85 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 12W 3D 11L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.54 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Adalah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Al-Fateh 2-4 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 38%, Al-Adalah 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Fateh) and 54% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Adalah in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 54% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 54% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Adalah cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah beat Al-Fateh 2-4 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.90 xG and Al-Adalah 1.14 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Adalah outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Al-Adalah attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Adalah 22%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al-Adalah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Adalah 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Al-Adalah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.