Al-Fateh 3-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Abha meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 March 2022 at 14:25 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Abha are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Abha 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Abha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 44% versus Abha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 39% | Abha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Abha 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.289 / defence 1.420 | Abha attack 0.814 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.158. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al-Fateh games / 23 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Abha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Abha 3.85. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Abha (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Abha 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Mar 2022, 14:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Abha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fateh 1.98 / Abha 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.289 / def 1.420 | Abha attack 0.814 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Abha xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Abha kicked off at 14:25 on Thursday 10 March 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Al-Fateh 3 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Abha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Abha is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 52% chance of winning, Abha a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fateh and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Abha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.29x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.49
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.32
1.34
Abha xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.34 for Abha, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 7D 9L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 9W 4D 10L from 23 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.35 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Abha have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Abha have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Abha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.27 PPG; Abha away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Abha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 3-0 on 10 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 46%, Abha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 46% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games; Abha in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 54% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 46% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Abha in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Abha 3-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Abha 1.34 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.29 / defence 1.42 against Abha attack 0.81 / defence 1.31, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 22% | Abha 26%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 39%, Abha 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Abha's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Abha 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.