Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Faisaly FC's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al-Faisaly FC, 1.50 for Al Taee — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Faisaly FC 0W, Al Taee 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Faisaly FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 46% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.26 xG and Al Taee 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.918 / defence 0.965 | Al Taee attack 0.729 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.285. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Al-Faisaly FC games / 28 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 45% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taee 3.70. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Faisaly FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 40% | Al Taee 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 45% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.26 / Al Taee 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.918 / def 0.965 | Al Taee attack 0.729 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Taee xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 June 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 45% chance of winning, Al Taee a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.92) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.73x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Al Taee xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.91 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 6W 12D 10L from 28 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 14L across 28 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.21 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 6W 6D 2L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taee's away record stands at 4W 1D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.07 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 6W 12D 10L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 10W 4D 14L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Taee in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al Taee.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 57%, Al Taee 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 43% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Taee in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 29% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 43% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al Taee 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.26 xG and Al Taee 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Al Taee attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 45% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 27%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 43%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 1.07 PPG, Al Taee 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Faisaly FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.