Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Raed to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Faisaly FC) versus 1.10 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Raed and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 53% versus Al-Raed 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Al-Raed 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.91 xG and Al-Raed 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.135 / defence 1.153 | Al-Raed attack 0.866 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.180. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Al-Faisaly FC games / 20 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 4.55. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 70% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.91 / Al-Raed 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.135 / def 1.153 | Al-Raed attack 0.866 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Raed xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 14:30 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Faisaly FC 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.09
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.18
Al-Raed xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
3%
30.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.18 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 4W 8D 7L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 1.05 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.32 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Raed have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Raed.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 70%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Faisaly FC and 70% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 50% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 70% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Faisaly FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Raed drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.91 xG and Al-Raed 1.18 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Al-Raed attack 0.87 / defence 1.47, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 22%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 53%, Al-Raed 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 1.05 PPG, Al-Raed 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.