Al-Faisaly FC 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 54%, yet in-form Al-Nassr provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Nassr travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 August 2021, 18:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.55 xG and Al-Nassr 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.150 | Al-Nassr attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 0.871. Data: 1 Al-Faisaly FC games / 1 Al-Nassr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Nassr 4.76. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 43% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Nassr (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Aug 2021, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.55 / Al-Nassr 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.967 / def 1.150 | Al-Nassr attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.397 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Nassr xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:50 on Thursday 19 August 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.92
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.41
0.85
Al-Nassr xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.85 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Nassr's attacking output running into Al-Faisaly FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 100% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 100% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.55 xG and Al-Nassr 0.85 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Al-Nassr attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 21%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 0%, Al-Nassr 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Faisaly FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Faisaly FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.