Al-Faisaly FC 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 14:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 3W 3D 1L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 1W 4D 0L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al-Faisaly FC, 1.40 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Faisaly FC register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 62% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 46% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.18 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.948 / defence 1.124 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.093. Data: 13 Al-Faisaly FC games / 13 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Faisaly FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Faisaly FC 71% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.18 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.948 / def 1.124 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.908 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 14:05 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 37% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (0.91x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.11
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.11 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 3W 6D 4L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 5W 6D 2L from 13 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 6D 4L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Al-Faisaly FC, 100% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 40% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al-Faisaly FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 2-3 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.18 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.