Al-Faisaly FC 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Thursday 16 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.67. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Fayha are 1.33 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.33 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Al-Fayha in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 67% and Al-Fayha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Fayha 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.963 / defence 1.277 | Al-Fayha attack 1.073 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.029. Data: 4 Al-Faisaly FC games / 3 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Fayha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 75% | Al-Fayha 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.32 / Al-Fayha 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.963 / def 1.277 | Al-Fayha attack 1.073 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Fayha xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 16 September 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 32% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.07x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
32%
3.17
33%
3.04
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.73
1.41
Al-Fayha xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.41 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2022, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Faisaly FC, 67% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 33% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Faisaly FC defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.41 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against Al-Fayha attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Faisaly FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Al-Fayha 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Faisaly FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Faisaly FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.