Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to . Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 0W 3D 4L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.43 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC at this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.67 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 0.43 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 71%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.04 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.645 / defence 1.179 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.338. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Faisaly FC games / 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.04 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.645 / def 1.179 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.942 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
23%
4.34
33%
3.02
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.49 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.50 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 75% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.