Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 4 November 2021, 13:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 2W 5D 2L from 9 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Faisaly FC at 1.22 PPG versus Abha's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Abha trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 78% and Abha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 56% | Abha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.96 xG and Abha 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.116 / defence 1.391 | Abha attack 0.619 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.065. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Al-Faisaly FC games / 10 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Abha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Faisaly FC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 100% | Abha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.96 / Abha 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.116 / def 1.391 | Abha attack 0.619 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Abha xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha kicked off at 13:55 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 61% chance of winning, Abha a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.48
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.88
0.92
Abha xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
2%
43.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.92 for Abha, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 5D 2L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.00 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Abha in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Abha have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Abha away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
0
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Abha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Abha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 100%, Abha at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Faisaly FC and 40% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Abha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 40% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 40% of Abha's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Abha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Abha 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.96 xG and Abha 0.92 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Faisaly FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Abha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Abha attack 0.62 / defence 1.54, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 61% | Draw 22% | Abha 16%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 56%, Abha 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.