Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 1W 1D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 1.20 PPG versus Al Wehda Club's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ettifaq 32% | Al Wehda Club 32%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 47% | Al Wehda Club 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.51 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.934 / defence 1.138 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.754 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.248. Data: 49 Al-Ettifaq games / 19 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wehda Club 3.85. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Wehda Club 22% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.51 / Al Wehda Club 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.934 / def 1.138 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.754 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 9 March 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.76
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.07 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 6W 4D 9L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.16 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.84 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
4
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ettifaq 44% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Wehda Club in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 22% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.51 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 26%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 47%, Al Wehda Club 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.16 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.