Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Raed at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 1W 2D 0L from 3 Pro League matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 1.67 PPG versus Al-Raed's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 100% versus Al-Raed 0%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 67% | Al-Raed 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.72 xG and Al-Raed 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.029 / defence 1.167 | Al-Raed attack 0.731 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.016. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Al-Ettifaq games / 3 Al-Raed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Raed 6.67. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 100% | Al-Raed 0%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.72 / Al-Raed 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.029 / def 1.167 | Al-Raed attack 0.731 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al-Raed xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 54% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
54%
1.84
30%
3.29
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.59
0.87
Al-Raed xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
36.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.87 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.67 PPG, Al-Raed on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Ettifaq's scoring rate against Al-Raed's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Raed in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Raed in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Raed have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 100%, Al-Raed 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Ettifaq) and 33% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 67%; Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 0% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 33% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Raed finished level at 2-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.72 xG and Al-Raed 0.87 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Al-Raed attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 54% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 15%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 67%, Al-Raed 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.67 PPG, Al-Raed 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Raed scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.