Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 25 December 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 7L from 9 games (0.44 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.86 in Al-Ettifaq's favour (1.30 vs 0.44) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 44% | Al Khaleej Saihat 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / defence 0.979 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.697 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.155. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 9 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 59% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Al Khaleej Saihat 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 59% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.68 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / def 0.979 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.697 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 59% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.89 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.70x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.11
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.47
0.79
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
31.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.79 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, 0.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Khaleej Saihat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Al-Ettifaq) and 25% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Ettifaq and 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 25% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 59% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 44%, Al Khaleej Saihat 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.