Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 1D 4L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 0W, Al-Ittihad FC 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al-Ittihad FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.991 / defence 1.057 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.095 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.156. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 46 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.01 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.991 / def 1.057 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.095 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 16 February 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.09x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.56
28%
3.63
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.34
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.34 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 13W 14D 19L from 46 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 6L across 46 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 14W 6D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 31W 9D 6L in their last 46 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 52% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 30%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 61% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.