Al-Ettifaq 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 16:55 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 0W, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 52% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.805 / defence 1.190 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.246 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.224. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Al-Ettifaq games / 25 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.00 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.805 / def 1.190 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.246 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:55 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 21% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.25x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
21%
4.84
23%
4.36
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.82
1.81
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
29.71
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.81 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 6W 9D 10L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 3L across 25 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 1L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 15W 7D 3L in their last 25 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.