Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 36%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / defence 1.186 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.943 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.338. Data: 41 Al-Ettifaq games / 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.57 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / def 1.186 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.943 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.31
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.06
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.50 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 17W 10D 14L from 41 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 6L across 41 games — 2.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 8W 7D 6L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 3D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.12 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Ettifaq) and 43% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.